Why Tin?
The global landscape is faced with rising geopolitical tensions, climate change urgency and a series of macroeconomic headwinds that are paving the way for the emergence of a new divided world, competing for vital resources such as tin. Regionalization of supply chains will lead to the establishment of new production centres that can produce critical minerals in a responsible manner.
MACRO
Divided & Competitive World
- De-Globalization and geopolitical transitions driving regionalization
- Intensifying US & China tensions (China has +60% of world's tin)
- Emerged economies become new consumption centres
- 1.3 billion more tin-using consumers in the middle class
SUSTAINABILITY
Securing a Sustainable Future
- $5T/yr needed by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
- Companies measured by ESG performance & transparency
- Align carbon reporting with net zero goals for tin users
- Advantages of Small-Scale Tin Mining (40% Global Production):
TECHNOLOGY
The Revolution is Real
- Tin surfs the data wave (artificial intelligence, machines, digitization)
- Energy transition: Clime change brings new opportunities
- Green tech & tin supply (recycling, waste mgmt., etc.)
- Tin use proves mostly resistant to price pressure
MARKETS
A Wakeup to Tin
- 50,000 tpa more tin needed for the technology supercycle
- Investors will discover a new interest in tin
- USD1 billion per year investment needed to reach tin demand
- Geopolitical, environmental calls for diverse tin smelters.
Outlook
Tin price broke out of its trading range in early 2021 characterized by a depletion of inventory balances on LME exchanges, renewed demand due to emerging applications and risk-on sentiment in financial markets. Woodcross expects these themes to maintain and accelerate momentum in the tin market in the medium to long term. While tin prices have been trading sideways since the second half of FY2022, Woodcross expects momentum to pick up again as conditions in financial markets recover and risks associated with the a global recession fade. Geopolitical tensions in key producing nations and demand from China will be key factors to monitor in the short term.
"Tin has been part of the human story for thousands of years, a silent witness to our progress and a testament to our ingenuity."